West Fargo, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

399
FXUS63 KFGF 220523
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above freezing temperatures this weekend into next week,
  resulting in some melting of the snowpack.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Skies have remained clear longer in our south and southeast, and
temperatures have dropped faster than previous forecast/NBM
indicated over deeper snow pack. It should level off as BL Tds
aren`t far from current temps, but until clouds increase from
the west colder spots around or slightly less than zero can be
expeted in the far southern RRV. I made some adjustments to
better reflect those trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 705 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

I made adjustments to timing of sky cover for passing high
clouds (and eventual arrival of mid level clouds from the
northwest), otherwise the forecast is on track. 925-950MB WAA is
in place and our overnight lows are more likely to level off in
the teens rather than substantially dropping from where they
are (teens to lower 20s). Any other cooling would be further
limited by increasing mid level clouds later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...Synopsis...

Synoptic pattern that generally dominates the next 7 days can be
described as northwest flow aloft with progressive, clipper-like
waves moving through the flow bringing periodic, brief chances
for light precipitation. Upper jet extending out of the Pacific
into the Northern Rockies will promote chinook-type warming of
the low level air mass that advects into/near our area. This
will support well above average temperatures into our area this
weekend into next week, including above freezing temperatures.

This next chance for precipitation comes with a quick
succession of a couple of clipper-like waves late Sunday through
Monday. This brings 30% chance of rain and snow, with up to one
or two tenths of an inch of precipitation possible (along with
little to now snow accumulation). There is a small (10%) chance
for some brief freezing drizzle to follow behind these waves
Sunday night into Monday morning. While this is the case, the
chance for impacts is very low (less than 10%) due very likely
low precipitation amounts.

Gusty winds between 20-35 mph out of the west accompany these
waves Sunday. This may bring local areas of drifting snow, of
which may lead to icy spots. This could bring some travel
impacts, particularly during the day into early evening.

Ensembles highlight other clipper-like waves with some consensus
around Wednesday, and another one around late next week around
Friday-Saturday timeframe that could move through a bit
stronger than others preceding it. However given its distance
into the future and resultant inherent lowered predictability,
confidence is low on location or severity of impacts with this
wave.

...Above freezing temperatures this weekend into next week...

With high confidence in chinook-type warmth advecting out of the
northern High Plains into and near our region of the Northern
Plains into Upper Midwest, there is high confidence, high chance
(greater than 90%) of above freezing temperatures starting as
early as Saturday, lingering through at least Wednesday.
Currently, warmest temperatures nearing or exceeding 50F occur
Monday and/or Tuesday. Currently ensembles favor this to occur
for locations near southeast North Dakota, although this is an
area that currently has an established snowpack, which may limit
just how warm temperatures get.

Areas that hold the best chance of seeing higher than forecast
temperatures are areas like snow- free locations of the central
Red River Valley as well as heavily tree-covered areas of west-
central and northwest/north- central Minnesota. Ideal daytime
heating conditions like clear skies will help promote this
process to occur, of which holds lower predictability at the
moment.

With several days of likely above freezing temperatures, some melting
of the snowpack for those who still have it is anticipated. The
extent and degree of melting remains in question. However, the
chance for complete melting remains very low given solar angle
this time of year (it is still February after all), and temperatures
likely to dip below freezing during the majority of overnight
hours. Thus, a response to area rivers are not anticipated at
this time.

With the anticipated snowmelt, this increases the chance for low
clouds/fog to develop next week, although remains low in
confidence regarding when and where. This may influence daytime
temperatures as well if fog/clouds do not dissipate during the
day, again lowering confidence in just how warm areas get next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with only
passing mid to high level clouds (6000-25000 FT AGL) as deeper
dry air is in place, and current pattern doesn`t allow low level
moisture to pool through Saturday afternoon. There is a
weak/spotty signal for patchy fog/stratus later Saturday night,
however chances are too low for TAF inclusion and even then the
signal is mainly after 06Z. Due to weaker gradient and weaker
winds aloft winds will tend to prevail from the southwest then
west 10kt or less for most locations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR